2026 March Market Update: Discipline through the Noise

Insights

The financial markets are navigating a complex period marked by geopolitical tension and shifting economic data. While headline volatility can be unsettling, our focus remains on the fundamentals of your long-term plan: clarity, coordination, and disciplined execution.

What Changed This Month

• Fixed Income Shifts: Treasury yields finished higher last week as markets reacted to the inflation impulse from higher energy prices. The 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year yields all climbed between 14 and 18 basis points, even though February inflation data was largely in line with expectations.
• Global Equity Pressures: Geopolitics continues to dominate global equity markets. The S&P 500 ended last week down 1.56% as investors weighed the duration of energy disruptions, though U.S. markets continue to outperform steeper declines in Europe.
• Energy Supply Shock: The Middle East conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. Regional crude exports have fallen to below 10% of their usual levels, causing oil prices to settle around $100 after significant volatility.

Why It Matters

Fixed Income: Beyond the Inflation Impulse The bond market is currently focused on the potential for a sustained shock to energy flows. While recent inflation data showed a headline increase of 2.4% year-over-year, the primary driver for yields is now the risk of energy-driven price pressures. High-quality fixed income remains a critical tool for capturing elevated yields, but we expect central banks to hold rates steady as they gauge the long-term impact of these supply chain disruptions.

Global Equities: Evaluating the Feedback Loop The current equity market is navigating a visible global macro shock. However, we believe a feedback loop may emerge where high energy prices eventually create political and economic pressures that could limit the duration of the conflict. While classic diversifiers face challenges in this environment, we remain constructive on U.S. stocks compared to global peers due to their relative energy independence.

Private Credit: Nuance over Headlines Headline risk often paints private credit as a monolith, but it is a massive and diverse $1.9 trillion ecosystem. Recent concerns have focused on the software sector, sometimes called the “SaaS-pocalypse.” However, this reset is largely driven by sentiment and valuation shifts rather than a systemic crisis in company operations. Many managers report that non-accruals remain well below industry averages, with portfolio health remaining strong.

Understanding the Private Credit Market

We want to address the fear currently circulating about private lending. Just as we analyze different sectors of the stock market, we apply deep nuance to our private credit evaluations:

• Separating Sectors: While software companies face a transition toward “service-as-software” models, other segments like asset-based finance and sponsor-backed loans to resilient U.S. businesses remain healthy.
• Credit Quality: Performance remains durable for many top-tier funds. For example, some of our preferred partners report that 98% of their investments sit in top internal risk categories.
• Our Vetting Process: Any investment we recommend goes through a strict vetting process to minimize risks. We prioritize first-lien, senior secured loans, which sit at the top of the capital structure and provide significant downside protection.

What to Consider Now

• Capturing Yield: Ensure your cash management and fixed income strategies are capturing the elevated yields currently available following the recent jump in Treasury rates.
• Portfolio Hygiene: Use this period of volatility to review your diversification and ensure your plan is not overly concentrated in a single sector or region.
• Selective Exposure: Focus on quality and disciplined underwriting in private markets rather than broad, unvetted exposure.

Moving Forward with Clarity

Market cycles naturally bring periods of heightened emotion and conflicting headlines. Our priority is to ensure your strategy is built on data and discipline rather than reaction. If recent headlines regarding energy prices or private markets have you seeking a clearer perspective on your own path, we are here to provide the context and guidance you need to move forward with confidence.

Sources:

• Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Market Monitor: Week Ending March 13, 2026
• Raymond James Monday Market Commentary
• BlackRock Investment Institute, Weekly Investment Commentary: Pressures to shape Mideast conflict